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Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
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Thinking in Bets
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Summary
Wall Street Journal bestseller!
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
Critic reviews
"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
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What listeners say about Thinking in Bets
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Jason
- 06-09-19
Surprising insights into the world of decision making
I really enjoyed this book, after it being recommend by a trader friend - it certainly helped me put some of previous business ‘failures’ into perspective, and to realise that the outcome is not always the result of poor decision making...
Highly recommended to anyone in business, or interested in trading in any of the markets
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- Pavell
- 01-04-20
brilliant
One of the best non fiction books I've listened or read. I will definitely listen to it again
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Overall3 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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- Furry Cheese
- 01-12-23
Giving up
The book has great promise, but I’ve been listening for hours, and she’s still giving anecdotes describing the problem. Don’t have time to wait for the recommendations.
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- Anonymous User
- 28-06-23
Amazing.
The only thing that bothered me was the amount of times I had to stop and take notes. This book blew my mind.
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- Peter Lawless
- 24-09-19
I bet you'll enjoy this..
..even though I don't have all the facts, if you do purchase this book, one of 2 outcomes, I believe if you listen to it, you will really enjoy it.
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- Roly H
- 16-08-18
Great
Great insight and topics really well covered with useful examples. Right balance of technical and practical.
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Overall4 out of 5 stars
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- Piotr Karas
- 21-01-19
Helps you think better in bets indeed
I'm glad I read this book. I think I needed it, esp. as a trader, to better think in bets, but also for my every-day life - to stray from extremes in vetting the outcomes of any decisions or strategies. It was worth reading until the very end, because I found the chapter 6 to be the best one.
Here are the ideas from this book that I liked the most:
- chess vs. poker,
- embracing the uncertainty of the future,
- outcome fielding (skill vs. luck),
- learning from your past/future self,
- backcasting and premortem.
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Overall3 out of 5 stars
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- C. PHILLIPS
- 14-07-22
Mildly interesting but dragged out
A poker metaphor that could have filled an hour-long podcast episode, but was instead strung out into a full book. If you’ve already read some well-rated pop psychology like Thinking Fast and Slow, Nudge or Predictably Irrational, then you’ll find very little new material here outside of poker lore and a large collection of highly USA-centric cultural references.
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- Anonymous User
- 25-03-24
My confirmation biases
Amazing book. So insightful. I had no idea how my biases were affecting my decision making. Thank you for writing this book.
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Excellent
Excellent book with a ground breaking thought process, already using it for my day trading.
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1 person found this helpful